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European Journal of Cancer

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match European Journal of Cancer's content profile, based on 10 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Enhanced expression of HLA-DR and CD69 on peripheral CD4+ T cells predicts better clinical outcomes in cutaneous melanoma

Tomas, A.; Maximino, J.; Nunes, H.; Salvador, R.; Luis, R.; Brito, C.; Saraiva, D. P.; Gouveia, E.; Pereira, C.; Goncalves, F.; Farricha, V.; Carvalho, E. L.; Moura, C.; Passos, M. J.; Cristovao-Ferreira, S.; Pereira, P. M.; Cabral, M. d. G.; Pojo, M.

2026-03-26 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.24.26349163 medRxiv
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BackgroundCutaneous melanoma (CM) is an aggressive skin cancer with rising incidence, representing a growing public health concern. Despite the remarkable success of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in the management of advanced disease, mortality remains high due to therapy resistance. Identifying reliable prognostic and predictive biomarkers is therefore essential to improve patient stratification, optimize treatment selection, and minimize unnecessary toxicity. MethodsWe comprehensively profiled the circulating immune landscape of 54 treatment-naive CM patients by integrating flow cytometry immunophenotyping with clinicopathological data, and performed tumor gene expression analysis in a subset of 26 patients. ResultsElevated HLA-DR and CD69 expression on circulating CD4+ T cells, together with reduced circulating CD8+ T cell frequency, emerged as candidate prognostic biomarkers associated with improved survival. Prognostic models combining these immune variables with clinical covariates accurately stratified patients by overall survival (89.5% sensitivity, 72.7% specificity; AUC = 0.872, p < 0.0001) and progression/recurrence risk (75% sensitivity and 71.4% specificity; AUC = 0.763, p = 0.001). In a subset of 43 patients subsequently treated with ICIs, elevated baseline HLA-DR and CD69 expression on circulating CD4+ T cells was also associated with therapeutic benefit. A predictive model integrating these markers with clinical covariates achieved good discriminatory performance (65.2% sensitivity, 88.9% specificity; AUC = 0.775, p = 0.0027). Tumor gene expression profiling supported the role of IFN-{gamma}-related signatures, previously linked to ICI response, as complementary prognostic and predictive tools. ConclusionThese findings highlight systemic CD4+ T cell activation status as a promising, easily measurable biomarker in CM, laying the foundation for future strategies to refine patient stratification and guiding immunotherapy decisions.

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Associations between spatial distribution of immune cell subsets and clinical outcomes in patients with advanced melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: results from the PUMA challenge

Schuiveling, M.; Liu, H.; Eek, D.; Hanusov, M.; van Duin, I.; ter Maat, L. S.; van der Weerd, J. C.; van den Berkmortel, F. W. P. J.; Blank, C. U.; Breimer, G. E.; Burgers, F. H.; Boers-Sonderen, M.; van den Eertwegh, A. J. M.; de Groot, J. W.; Haanen, J. B. A. G.; Hospers, G. A. P.; Kapiteijn, E.; Piersma, D.; Simkens, L. H. J.; Westgeest, H. M.; Schrader, A. M. R.; van Diest, P. J.; Lv, J.; Zhu, Y.; Tenorio, C. G. C.; Chohan, B. S.; Eastwood, M.; Raza, S. E. A.; Torbati, N.; Meshcheryakova, A.; Mechtcheriakova, D.; Mahbod, A.; Adams, D.; Galdran, A.; Pluim, J. P. W.; Blokx, W. A. M.; Suijker

2026-03-10 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.09.26347935 medRxiv
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Patients with advanced melanoma are treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), yet less than 50% of patients achieve a durable response while all patients are exposed to the risk of severe side effects. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in pathology images are associated with ICI outcomes, but manual assessment is subjective. In addition, the predictive value of other immune cell subsets, including plasma cells, neutrophils, histiocytes, and melanophages, remains unclear. We organized the Panoptic segmentation of nUclei and tissue in advanced MelanomA (PUMA) challenge to evaluate whether the spatial localization of TILs and other immune cell subsets on melanoma H&E slides collected before start of treatment was associated with treatment outcomes. Algorithm performance was evaluated on a hidden test set, after which top-ranked algorithms were applied to pre-treatment metastatic whole-slide images from a large, multicenter cohort of patients with advanced melanoma treated with first-line ICIs (n=1102). Automatically quantified tissue features and immune cell subsets were then associated with clinical outcomes. Top-performing algorithms improved detection of immune cell subsets, although accuracy for rare classes remained limited. Across challenge participants, TIL density showed the most consistent association with treatment response and survival. Associations for stromal TILs were weaker, while plasma cells, histiocytes, melanophages, neutrophils, necrosis and blood vessels did not show independent associations with outcomes. Overall, the results from the PUMA challenge improved the state of the art of immune cell detection in melanoma histopathology and show that intra-tumoral lymphocytes are the immune cell subset most consistently associated with treatment response and survival. HighlightsO_LIWe organized the first melanoma-specific tissue and nuclei segmentation competition C_LIO_LIWinning algorithms were applied to 1102 whole-slide images for biomarker analysis C_LIO_LIIntra-tumoral TILs were associated with response to immune checkpoint inhibitors C_LIO_LIOther immune cell subsets showed no independent association with treatment outcomes C_LIO_LITissue segmentation on WSIs was limited by low heterogeneity in training data. C_LI Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=140 SRC="FIGDIR/small/26347935v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (39K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@13838e4org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f34a6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b9a65borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@58d300_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

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Integrative single-cell profiling of melanoma reveals a tumor microenvironment signature predictive of immunotherapy response

Margelos, T.; Mina, I.; Tserga, A.; Goula, E.; Kondylis, S.; Vlahou, A.; Frantzi, M.

2026-05-17 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.13.26352980 medRxiv
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Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors have transformed cancer treatment, yet a large number of patients fail to respond. Identifying molecular characteristics that predict response before treatment initiation remains an unmet need. Towards that end, this study presents a large-scale integrative analysis of existing single-cell and bulk tissue datasets, aimed at identifying predictive features while providing insights into their cellular origin and potential function within the tumor microenvironment. Methods: A stepwise analysis was performed using single-cell RNA-sequencing data from 60 melanoma patients at baseline, separated into discovery (n=41) and validation (n=19) sets. An integrated bulk transcriptomics dataset (n=128) from melanoma patients and a bladder cancer dataset (n=298) were used for further validation. Results: Integrative analysis of melanoma single-cell datasets revealed that responders exhibit distinct molecular profiles across multiple cell types compared to non-responders. Notably, these included downregulation of the TNFR superfamily and other immunosuppressive genes (TNFRSF18, TNFRSF9, TNFRSF4, LGALS1, BATF, IL12RB2, LINGO1, DUSP4, SDC4, VCAM1) in T-cells. By investigating the findings from the immune cell populations in the bulk tumor context, 13 transcripts were found to be consistently associated with response across all cohorts. These were differentially expressed in T-cells (SELL, EPB41, CD96, UHFR2, LINGO1, LGALS1), B-cells (ALDH5A1), NK cells (PLEC, PDGFRB) and Monocytes (TLR10, ST6GAL1, IKZF1, MPRIP). A predictive model based on these features effectively discriminated responders from non-responders in melanoma (AUC=0.73). The model maintained significant predictive power in an independent bladder cancer dataset (IMvigor210; AUC=0.64). Of high clinical relevance, it demonstrated enhanced performance in identifying responders among patients with low tumor mutational burden (AUC=0.75). Conclusion: Our study reveals pre-treatment molecular features related to immune-cancer crosstalk that are associated with response to immunotherapy. A 13-gene model demonstrates potential added clinical value in stratifying responders, particularly in patients with low tumor mutational burden, meriting further validation.

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Can Artificial Intelligence Match Dermoscopy in Melanoma Detection? Evidence from a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Pigmented Skin Lesions

Tang, H.; Zhu, Y.; Diao, M.

2026-05-20 dermatology 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353363 medRxiv
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Accurate risk stratification of pigmented skin lesions is critical for early melanoma detection and for reducing unnecessary excisions. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly applied to dermoscopic image analysis, but its diagnostic performance relative to standard dermoscopy in real-world clinical settings remains uncertain. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective clinical studies directly comparing AI alone, dermoscopy, and AI-assisted clinicians for malignancy risk assessment of pigmented skin lesions. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library from inception to January 2026. Ten studies with 17 diagnostic arms (10 dermoscopy arms, 6 AI-alone arms, and 1 AI-assisted clinician arm) were included. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.773 (95% CI, 0.648-0.863) and 0.793 (95% CI, 0.673-0.877) for dermoscopy, and 0.757 (95% CI, 0.428-0.928) and 0.859 (95% CI, 0.619-0.958) for standalone AI. Summary ROC curves showed overlapping performance, indicating that autonomous AI is broadly comparable to dermoscopy but does not demonstrate a consistent advantage. Heterogeneity in AI performance was driven almost entirely by threshold effects rather than by differences in inherent model capacity. AI-assisted clinicians showed promising results (sensitivity 1.000, specificity 0.837) in a single study, but more evidence is needed. Our findings suggest that, at present, AI should be viewed as a complementary decision-support tool rather than a replacement for dermoscopic evaluation. The study provides valuable evidence for clinicians, guideline developers, and researchers working on AI integration into melanoma diagnostic pathways.

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Predicting Distant Melanoma Metastasis at Diagnosis Using Machine Learning

Kim, J. J. H.; Lee, J. W. Y.; Yuan, H.; Han, C.; Zandigohar, M.; Haber, R.; Tsoukas, M.; Avanaki, K.

2026-05-19 dermatology 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353271 medRxiv
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Distant melanoma metastasis at the time of diagnosis is uncommon, but has major implications for patient prognosis and treatment selection. However, few tools can reliably predict the risk of distant metastasis at initial presentation. Here, we developed and evaluated machine learning models to predict distant melanoma metastasis using routinely captured clinicopathologic and demographic variables across all histologic subtypes. Using the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program from 2010-2022, we identified adults aged 20 to 90 years with melanoma as the first and only primary malignancy (n=51,285). Explainable Boosting Machine achieved a strong balance of discrimination and precision (AUROC = 0.947, AUPRC = 0.610, Precision = 0.793, Brier = 0.015). At 90% sensitivity, specificity was 0.843 with consistent performance across cross-validation folds. Clinicopathologic variables, including T stage, Breslow thickness, ulceration, and mitotic activity, contributed the largest share of predictive signal across descriptive, regression-based, and SHAP analyses, with smaller contributions from demographic factors. Decision curve analysis supported clinical utility, showing a net reduction of 88.3 per 100 patients and a standardized net benefit of 0.541. This model could be used to identify patients at sufficiently elevated risk to justify staging PET/CT despite otherwise localized clinical presentation. Cost-consequence analysis further showed that imaging true- and false-positive patients at 85% to 95% sensitivity threshold nearly doubled downstream imaging cost. We deployed the final model as an online calculator to support exploration of individualized risk estimates (https://melanoma-calculator.streamlit.app/).

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Activity of low dose nivolumab in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinomas and other cancers

Gauduchon, T.; Fayette, J.; Amini-Adle, M.; Neidhart-Berard, E.-M.; Brahmi, M.; Dufresne, A.; Dupont, M.; Coutzac, C.; De Bernardi, A.; Toussaint, P.; Mery, B.; Crumbach, L.; Ray-Coquard, I.; Dutour, A.; Castets, M.; Blay, J.-Y.; HEUDEL, P.

2026-03-27 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.25.26349285 medRxiv
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Immune checkpoint inhibitors such as anti-PD1 antibodies are essential in cancer therapy. Emerging data suggest that lower doses may be effective and more economical, though further evidence is needed. We conducted a retrospective study at Centre Leon Berard to assess the efficacy and safety of low-dose nivolumab (20 mg every three weeks) in patients with advanced cancer, mainly squamous cell carcinomas (SCC). Between 2023 and 2024, 53 patients were treated, with a median age of 74 years; 39.6% were over 80. Most were male (64%) and had ECOG >1 (69.9%). Primary tumor sites included cutaneous SCC (34%), head and neck SCC (32%), and soft tissue sarcoma (15%). After a median follow-up of 8.3 months, median overall survival was 7.5 months. The objective response rate (ORR) was 20.8% overall, rising to 35.3% in cutaneous SCC and 23.5% in head and neck SCC-comparable to standard-dose nivolumab. Toxicity was manageable: 18.7% experienced immune-related adverse events, with only 3.7% grade 3. Low-dose nivolumab demonstrates encouraging efficacy and tolerability in a frail population, supporting its potential role in resource-limited settings. Prospective trials are warranted to confirm these findings in broader populations.

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Clinical and pathological characteristics of thin cutaneous melanomas with rapid recurrence.

Bhave, P.; Wong, T.; Margolin, K.; Hoeijmakers, L.; Mangana, J.; Vitale, M. G.; Ascierto, P. A.; Maurichi, A.; Santinami, M.; Heddle, G.; Allayous, C.; Lebbe, C.; Kattak, A.; Forchhammer, S.; Kessels, J. I.; Lau, P.; Lo, S. N.; Papenfuss, A. A.; McArthur, G. A.

2026-04-06 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.04.26350182 medRxiv
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Background: Although thin, T1 melanomas have an excellent cure rate with surgery alone, >25% of melanoma deaths originate from thin melanomas (TMs). There is, therefore, an urgent need to improve the identification and management of patients with TMs at high risk of recurrence. Methods: Patients with T1 melanoma and recurrence [&le;] 2 years of diagnosis (T1 rapid group) were compared to patients with T1 melanoma and recurrence [&ge;]10 years after diagnosis (T1 late group). Results: 442 patients from 14 sites were included: 310 and 132 patients in the T1 rapid and late groups, respectively. Median age at primary melanoma diagnosis was 51 years [15-85], 272 (62%) male, 254 (58%) superficial spreading and 101 (23%) head/neck primary. The majority (73%) of recurrences in the T1 rapid group were locoregional. Using univariable logistic regression analysis, age >65 years (p<0.0001), lentigo maligna (LM) melanoma subtype (p=0.025), head/neck primary site (p=0.0065), mitoses [&ge;]1/mm2 (p=0.0181) and ulceration (p=0.0087) were significantly associated with T1 rapid recurrence compared to T1 late recurrence. Using multivariable analysis, age >65 years (p=0.0010), mitoses [&ge;]1/mm2 (p=0.049) and ulceration (p=0.037) remained significant. Conclusions: Rapid recurrence of TM is associated with age >65 years, LM subtype, head/neck primary site, mitoses [&ge;]1/mm2 and ulceration.

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Immunotherapy Significantly Improves Merkel Cell Carcinoma-Specific Survival: A Single-Cohort Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Shalhout, S. Z.; Fragano, A.; Chefitz, G.; Andrew, T.; Lachance, K.; Kulikauskas, R.; Nghiem, P.; Brownell, I.

2026-03-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347615 medRxiv
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BackgroundImmune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have improved outcomes in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). Population analyses suggest improved survival following the 2017 approval of ICI, but registry data lack treatment-level information including type of systemic therapy and initiation timepoint to directly estimate the benefit attributable to immunotherapy. This study compared Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival between patients treated with first-line ICI versus cytotoxic chemotherapy. MethodsPatients were identified from the Seattle Merkel Cell Carcinoma Registry. Among 1,517 patients with MCC, 463 received first-line systemic therapy with either ICI or chemotherapy. Propensity scores were estimated using logistic regression including AJCC 8th stage, age, sex, MCPyV status, and immunosuppression. One-to-one nearest-neighbor matching produced balanced cohorts of 133 ICI-treated and 133 chemotherapy-treated patients. Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival from therapy initiation was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models with follow-up administratively censored at five years. ResultsBaseline clinical characteristics were comparable between matched cohorts. ICI therapy was associated with significantly improved Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival compared with chemotherapy (log-rank p<0.0001). Five-year Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival was 56.8% (95% CI 46.8-65.6) for ICI versus 23.9% (95% CI 16.9-31.6) for chemotherapy. In multivariable stage-stratified Cox analysis, ICI remained independently associated with improved Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.50; p<0.0001), while immunosuppression was associated with worse Merkel Cell Carcinoma-specific survival (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.10-3.74; p=0.0228). ConclusionsICI therapy was associated with substantially improved MCC-specific survival compared with chemotherapy.

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The impact of non-invasive prehabilitation before surgery on emotional well-being in neuro-oncology patients: Insights from the Prehabilita project

Brault-Boixader, N.; Roca-Ventura, A.; Delgado-Gallen, S.; Buloz-Osorio, E.; Perellon-Alfonso, R.; Hung Au, C.; Bartres-Faz, D.; Pascual-Leone, A.; Tormos Munoz, J. M.; Abellaneda-Perez, K.; Prehabilita Working Group,

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350382 medRxiv
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Prehabilitation (PRH) is a preoperative process aimed at optimizing patients functional capacity to improve surgical outcomes and overall well-being. While its physical and cognitive benefits are increasingly documented, its emotional impact, particularly in neuro-oncology patients, remains less explored. This study assessed the psychological effects of a PRH program on 29 brain tumor patients. The primary outcome, emotional well-being, was measured using quality of life and emotional distress metrices. Secondary outcomes included perceived stress levels and control attitudes. Additionally, qualitative data from structured interviews provided further insights into the psychological effects of the intervention. The results indicated significant improvements in quality of life and reductions in emotional distress, particularly among women. While perceived stress levels remained stable, control attitudes showed an increase. Qualitative analysis further highlighted the positive changes in the control sense and identified additional factors, such as the importance of social support sources during the PRH process. Overall, these findings suggest that PRH interventions play a significant role in enhancing emotional well-being among neuro-oncological patients in the preoperative phase. These results underscore the importance of implementing comprehensive and personalized PRH approaches to optimize clinical status both before and after surgery, thereby promoting sustained psychological benefits in this population. This study is based on data collected at Institut Guttmann in Barcelona in the context of the Prehabilita project (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05844605; registration date: 06/05/2023).

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CT4CMS: Preoperative Computed Tomography-Based Consensus Molecular Subtyping Prediction in Colorectal Cancer Using Interpretable Deep Learning

Zhang, X.; Nie, X.; Wu, T.; Cai, D.; Xue, H.; Qi, L.; Wang, Y.; Cao, Y.; He, L.; Zhang, Y.; Cheng, Y.; Wang, H.; Wang, X.; Li, E.; Dong, Y.; Gao, F.; Wang, X.

2026-03-10 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.08.26347898 medRxiv
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Consensus molecular subtyping (CMS) defines the transcriptomic taxonomy of colorectal cancer (CRC) and guides precision therapy. Although current approaches can predict CMS from histopathology, they rely on surgical specimens, limiting their preoperative applicability. In this study, we developed a deep learning model to infer CMS directly from preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans, enabling noninvasive molecular stratification of CRC. A multi-institutional cohort of 2,444 CRC patients was collected from the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University and Liaoning Cancer Hospital, comprising a discovery cohort (n = 416), an internal validation cohort (n = 1,671), and an external validation cohort (n = 357). To achieve robust feature extraction, a self-supervised 3D representation learning network was first pretrained on large-scale public CT datasets to capture generalizable imaging features. These representations were subsequently integrated into a multi-instance learning (MIL) classifier for CMS prediction, with attention mechanisms to enhance interpretability. Model performance was evaluated by cross-validation on the discovery cohort and verified on the two validation cohorts. CT4CMS demonstrated strong performance in predicting CMS subtypes directly from CT scans, achieving a cross-validation AUC of 0.867. In both validation cohorts, patients predicted as CMS4 exhibited significantly poorer disease-free survival yet derived substantial benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy, consistent with transcriptome-defined subtyping trends observed in the discovery cohort. Interpretability analysis revealed distinct subtype-specific radiomic features, suggesting that CT-derived imaging features capture underlying molecular characteristics and enable CMS classification. Overall, this study establishes a noninvasive and interpretable deep learning framework for CMS prediction in CRC, paving the way for imaging-based molecular stratification and personalized therapeutic decision-making.

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Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Prognosis in Patients with Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Zhang, K.; Gao, L.; John, D.; Li, W. T.; Hogarth, M.; Coffey, C. S.; Ongkeko, W. M.

2026-05-28 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354194 medRxiv
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Importance Prognostic tools beyond staging are needed to guide treatment and counseling in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Objective To develop and externally validate a machine learning model predicting survival in advanced HNSCC using routinely collected clinical and biomarker data. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective, multi-institutional cohort study including 2,385 patients with stage III-IV HNSCC diagnosed from 2012-2022 in the University of California Health Data Warehouse (UCHDW). Patients were randomly split into training (n = 1,908) and test (n = 477) sets. Partial external validation used 7,749 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry (2010-2020). Exposures Demographic, tumor, treatment, comorbidity, and biomarker variables recorded at or before diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 70 months. Cox proportional hazards models included all predictors. Discrimination was assessed with Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration with predicted vs observed survival, and stratification with Kaplan-Meier curves. A Random Survival Forest (RSF) was trained for benchmarking and interpretability using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results Among 2,385 patients in UCHDW (median age, 63 years; 29.0% mortality), the Cox model achieved a C-index of 0.735 in the internal test set. Risk quartiles showed clear separation on Kaplan-Meier curves (log-rank p < 0.0001). In the SEER cohort (n = 7,749), where only demographic, staging, subsite, and treatment variables were available, the reduced Cox model achieved a C-index of 0.688, with calibration showing modest underestimation of survival in high-risk groups. Age, T stage, Charlson Comorbidity Index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet count were among the strongest predictors, while surgery was associated with improved survival. The RSF achieved a C-index of 0.758 internally, with SHAP highlighting nonlinear effects of albumin, BMI, and inflammatory markers. Conclusions and Relevance A machine learning model using routine clinical and biomarker data demonstrated good prognostic performance in advanced HNSCC, with partial external validation. Such approaches may support individualized survival estimates, risk stratification, and treatment discussions, but broader validation is required before clinical adoption.

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Validation of Immunoscore for Prognostic Stratification in HPV-associated Oropharyngeal Cancer: An International Multicenter Study

Nguyen, D. H.; Majdi, A.; Marliot, F.; Houtart, V.; Kirilovsky, A.; Hijazi, A.; Fredriksen, T.; de Sousa Carvalho, N.; Bach, A.- S.; Gaultier, A.- L.; Fabiano, E.; Kreps, S.; Tartour, E.; Pere, H.; Veyer, D.; Blanchard, P.; Angell, H. K.; Pages, F.; Mirghani, H.; Galon, J.

2026-04-11 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350238 medRxiv
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BackgroundTreatment optimization in HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC) remains challenging, as recent de-escalation trials have shown limited success. Current patient selection strategies based on smoking history and TNM classification are insufficient, highlighting the need for robust, standardized prognostic biomarkers. We report the first validation of the Immunoscore (IS) for prognostic stratification in HPV-associated OPSCC. Patients and methodsWe analyzed 191 HPV-associated (p16+ and HPV DNA/RNA+) OPSCC patients from an international multicenter cohort (2015-2024), comprising a French monocentric retrospective training cohort (N = 48) and three validation cohorts: French monocentric retrospective (N = 48), French multicenter prospective (N = 50), and US multicenter retrospective (N = 45). IS is a standardized digital pathology assay quantifying CD3lJ and CD8lJ densities in tumor cores and invasive margins, with cut-offs defined in the training cohort and validated across cohorts. Associations with disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence (TTR) and overall survival (OS) were assessed, alongside 3RNA-seq and sequential immunofluorescence profiling of immune composition. ResultsMedian age 65; 80% male; 74% smokers; 66% T1-2; 82% N0-1 (AJCC8th). IS-High patients demonstrated superior 3-year DFS in the training and validation cohorts 1-3 (all log-rank P < 0.05). Multivariable analysis identified IS-Low as the strongest independent risk factor for DFS (HR 9.03; 95% CI: 4.02-20.31; P < 0.001). The model combining IS with clinical factors showed higher predictive accuracy for DFS (C-index 0.82) than clinical variables alone (0.7; P < 0.0001). Similar findings were observed for TTR and OS. IS-High tumors showed markedly higher enrichment of lymphoid and myeloid immune cell populations, contrasting with immune-poor signatures in IS-Low tumors. ConclusionsIS is a robust biomarker that outperforms standard clinical variables in both prognostic and predictive accuracy. The enriched cytotoxic immune infiltrate in IS-High tumors explains favorable outcomes and supports their suitability for treatment de-escalation. Prospective validation is warranted.

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Heterogeneity of survival outcomes in ypN1 breast cancer after neoadjuvant therapy: The role of residual nodal burden in axillary de-escalation

Luz, F. A. C. d.; Araujo, R. A. d.; Araujo, L. B. d.; Silva, M. J. B.

2026-03-05 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.04.26347623 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe management of residual axillary disease after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) remains controversial, as current recommendations often treat ypN1 breast cancer as a homogeneous entity despite potential prognostic heterogeneity. Evidence supporting uniform axillary surgical strategies across different levels of residual nodal burden is limited. We investigated whether survival associations related to axillary surgical evaluation differ according to residual nodal burden in ypN1 disease, using an adjuvant cohort to validate a SEER-based proxy for surgical extent. MethodsPatients with 1-3 positive lymph nodes were identified in the SEER database (2000-2022) and stratified into neoadjuvant (NAT; n=30,560) and adjuvant (AT; n=197,586) cohorts. Axillary surgical evaluation was categorized as limited (2-3 examined nodes) or extensive ([&ge;]10 examined nodes). Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier methods and log-logistic accelerated failure-time models, adjusted with inverse probability of treatment weighting. ResultsIn the ypN1 cohort, limited axillary evaluation was not associated with inferior overall survival among patients with a single residual positive node (IPTW-adjusted HR: 1.15, p=0.134; time ratio [TR]: 0.86, p=0.184). In contrast, limited evaluation was associated with worse survival in patients with two positive nodes (HR: 1.70, 95%CI 1.54-1.87; TR: 0.58, 95%CI 0.53-0.64). The findings were similar when using breast cancer-specific survival as the endpoint. ConclusionsSurvival associations related to axillary surgical evaluation after NAT vary according to residual nodal burden. Axillary de-escalation appears feasible in patients with a single residual positive node but cannot be extrapolated to those with multiple residual nodes, underscoring heterogeneity within ypN1 disease.

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Macrophage spatial polarity to T cells predicts prognosis in young women with luminal breast cancer

Mezheyeuski, A.; Serna, G.; Martin-Bernabe, A.; Hekmati, N.; Zerdes, I.; Denes, A.; Fredholm, H.; Mauchanski, S.; Guardia, X.; Alonso, L.; De Mey, L.; Lahoutte, T.; Keyaerts, M.; Lindblad, J.; Sladoje, N.; Warnberg, F.; Sund, M.; Rask, G.; Wadsten, C.; Ponten, F.; Micke, P.; Fredriksson, I.; Nuciforo, P.

2026-05-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.17.26352909 medRxiv
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Purpose: The prognostic role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in luminal breast cancer remains uncertain, partly because density-based metrics do not capture spatial interactions between immune cell subsets. We developed a density-independent spatial metric quantifying macrophage-T cell proximity and assessed its prognostic value. Experimental Design: Using multiplex immunohistochemistry across three breast cancer cohorts (exploratory, n = 17; discovery, n = 687; validation, n = 305), we measured nearest-neighbor distances from T cells to M1-like and M2-like macrophages, benchmarked against a randomly subsampled total macrophage pool. We defined the Macrophage Spatial Polarity Index (MSPI) as the difference between M2-to-T cell and M1-to-T cell affinity scores, where higher values reflect an M2-dominated spatial phenotype. Cox regression was used to assess associations with distant disease-free survival (discovery) and overall survival (validation). Results: M2-like macrophages preferentially localized near T cells, independent of cell density. Higher MSPI was associated with shorter survival in luminal cancers (discovery: HR = 1.45, p < 0.001), with the strongest effect in young women with early-stage disease (HR = 2.16, p < 0.0001). MSPI remained independently prognostic after adjustment for stage, systemic treatment, and diagnosis period (HR = 2.31, 95% CI 1.73-3.09, p < 0.0001) and was non-significant in HER2-positive and triple-negative subtypes. Validation in an independent ER-positive cohort confirmed the finding (HR = 1.30, p = 0.004). Pooled analysis yielded HR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.68-2.70, p = 3.45 x 10-10). Conclusions: MSPI is a robust prognostic biomarker in luminal breast cancer, particularly in young women with early-stage disease, warranting further validation for risk stratification and therapeutic guidance.

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Enfortumab vedotin-induced cutaneous toxicities and their association with survival in urothelial carcinoma

Lee, E.; Karagenova, R.; Lu, C.; Farokh, P.; Azin, M.; Repetto, F.; Jobbagy, S.; Nazarian, R. M.; Reynolds, K.; Demehri, S.; Saylor, P. J.; Fuksman, L.; Semenov, Y. R.

2026-05-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353579 medRxiv
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Importance: Enfortumab vedotin (EV) is an antibody-drug conjugate approved for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer (la/mUC). Cutaneous adverse events (cAEs) are common during EV therapy, with prior studies suggesting an association between EV-related cAEs and improved survival; however, there is insufficient data to delineate the survival benefit of EV-induced cAEs from those associated with concurrent immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Objective: This study aims to evaluate the association of EV-induced cAEs and survival, and to characterize the timing and morphology of EV-induced cAEs. Design: We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective study of patients with la/mUC treated with EV between 2020 and 2025. Setting: Multicenter academic referral center. Participants: A total of 449 EV-treated patients were included. Patient characteristics were extracted manually, and likelihood scoring was used to attribute cAEs to either EV or other etiologies. Exposure: EV treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: We estimated progression-free (PFS) and overall (OS) survival using Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable time-varying and landmark Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations between EV-induced cAE and survival. Sensitivity analyses were performed at landmarks from 15 to 105 days. Results: Of 449 patients, 206 (45.9%) developed a cAE; 39 (18.9%) were high-grade and 127 (61.7%) were attributed to EV. The most common cAEs were pruritus (41.3%), unspecified and desquamating dermatitis (37.3%), and morbilliform dermatitis (27.7%). Across all treatment groups, survival was longer in patients with EV-induced cAEs. Developing an EV-induced cAE was protective across all examined landmark times, with hazard ratio (HR) 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43-0.82, p<0.001) for PFS and HR 0.46 (95% CI: 0.31-0.67, p<0.001) for OS at primary landmark time of 30 days. Early-onset EV-induced cAEs were protective at all landmark times and high-grade EV-induced cAEs were not associated with worse survival. Conclusions and Relevance: EV-induced cAEs were independently associated with improved PFS and OS in patients with la/mUC, even after accounting for immortal time bias and ICI exposure. Distinguishing EV-induced cAEs from other etiologies in timeline and morphology may help guide oncology and dermatology management.

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When Survival Improves But Quality of Life Does Not: A Model-Based Meta-Analysis of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Sun, Y.; Chang, S.; Tang, K.; LeBlanc, M. R.; Palmer, A. C.; Ahamadi, M.; Zhou, J.

2026-03-05 oncology 10.64898/2026.03.04.26347610 medRxiv
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BackgroundIn immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) trials, overall survival (OS) benefits are well established, yet improvements in quality of life (QoL) are often inconsistent or absent in conventional analyses. This apparent discordance raises important questions: are QoL outcomes truly unrelated to survival, and how can QoL results be better utilized and interpreted? MethodsA model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) of longitudinal EORTC QLQ-C30 global health status/quality of life data from randomized ICI trials was conducted. Longitudinal QoL trajectories were analyzed using a nonlinear mixed-effects model to estimate treatment-related toxicity and long-term QoL improvement. Associations between QoL trajectory parameters and OS were assessed using spearman rank correlation tests and Cox proportional hazards models. ResultsTwenty-seven studies (8,149 ICI and 5,593 control patients) contributed longitudinal QoL data, and 18 studies provided matched OS data. Raw QoL trajectories showed overlap between treatment arms, while OS consistently favored ICIs. MBMA revealed that ICIs had similar toxicity but significantly faster QoL improvement than control therapies (p < 0.0001). Baseline QoL, toxicity, and QoL improvement rate were all significantly associated with OS (p < 0.001). MBMA-based QoL comparisons were more sensitive in detecting associations with survival than raw QoL data, with the strongest association observed at Week 24 (R = -0.37, p = 0.067). ConclusionsConventional analyses comparing QoL at a single time point may obscure meaningful patient-reported benefits. By capturing longitudinal QoL trajectories across trials, MBMA reveals how patient experience evolves alongside survival outcomes and supports improved interpretation and utilization of QoL data in treatment evaluation.

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Determination of the practical utility of ESMO Scale for Clinical Actionability of molecular Targets (ESCAT): mapping OncoKB level 1 alterations using ESCAT

Kordes, M.; Chakravarty, D.; Boberg, E.; Creignou, M.; de Petris, L.; Karlsson, C.; Burstrom, L. L.; Suehnholz, S.; Yachnin, J.; Wiklander, O. P.; Haglund de Flon, F.

2026-05-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.16.26353390 medRxiv
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Background. The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Scale for Clinical Actionability of molecular Targets (ESCAT) ranks genomic alterations by the evidence supporting the predictive value of the molecular target for response to targeted therapies. No openly available, systematically curated set of standard care biomarkers mapped to the ESCAT framework exists to support clinical decision-making or harmonize biomarker interpretation. Methods. We mapped all OncoKBTM Level 1 biomarkers to ESCAT tiers using evidence cited by OncoKBTM, excluding abstract-only data. Eight board-certified oncologists and hematologists independently assigned ESCAT tiers, with discrepancies resolved through structured consensus meetings. Recurring evidence scenarios that did not correspond to any existing ESCAT tier informed a set of a priori defined modifications, which were subsequently applied to biomarkers that could not be classified using native ESCAT criteria. Results. Of 188 OncoKBTM Level 1 biomarkers, 16 were excluded due to abstract-only evidence. Using native ESCAT criteria, 51% of the remaining biomarkers were classified as Tier 1, 3% Tier 2, 18% Tier 3, 6% Tier X and 22% could not be assigned to any tier. Applying the modified ESCAT criteria resolved all previously unclassifiable biomarkers and increased Tier 1 assignments to 73%. Inter-rater reliability (Krippendorffs alpha) was moderate (0.586) and 62% of classifications required consensus discussions. Comparison with ESCAT tiers reported in ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines showed improved concordance when using the modified criteria. Conclusions. The native ESCAT criteria are highly stringent, resulting in many FDA-recognized, clinically validated biomarkers that are currently assigned level 1 by OncoKBTM not mapping to any existing tier. Our predefined modifications improved alignment with OncoKBTM Level 1 designations and with published ESMO clinical practice guidelines. The mapped set of standard care biomarkers are provided on the OncoKBTM website, offering a practical resource that harmonizes ESCAT tiers of evidence with a widely adopted levels of evidence schema.

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Retrospective cohort study extracting coexisting background breast-lesion features from stage I-III invasive breast cancer

Lim, R. J. Y.; Nitar, P.; Lau, K. W.; Leong, L. C. H.; Lim, G. H.; Tan, V. K. M.; Tan, B. K. T.; Tan, E. Y.; Goh, S. S. N.; Hartman, M.; Wong, F. Y.; Li, J.; Joint Breast Cancer Registry,

2026-05-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353633 medRxiv
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Background Background breast features are frequently noted in pathology reports alongside invasive breast cancer but rarely factor into prognosis or treatment decisions. Their relationship to tumor characteristics and patient outcomes remains incompletely characterised. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 7,603 patients with Stage I-III invasive breast cancer (diagnosed 1991-2022, age <80 years) from the Joint Breast Cancer Registry in Singapore. Natural language processing (NLP) was applied to 9,754 free-text pathology reports to extract co-existing background breast features, with accuracy validated by dual-reviewer assessment of 200 reports. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering grouped extracted features into three categories. Associations with tumor characteristics were assessed by multinomial logistic regression, and ten-year overall survival by Cox proportional hazards models (median follow-up 9.6 years; 620 deaths). Results Here we show that NLP-based extraction of background breast features from routine pathology reports achieves an accuracy of over 90% across features. Lobular neoplasia and benign proliferative changes are associated with less aggressive tumor characteristics, whereas early neoplastic and papillary lesions are more prevalent in HER2-enriched and luminal B tumor subtypes. Benign proliferative changes are associated with better survival in age- and year-adjusted models (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97), but this association is attenuated after adjustment for stage and subtype. Conclusions NLP-enabled extraction of background breast features from pathology text is feasible at scale. These features reflect tumor biology but do not independently add prognostic information beyond established clinical variables.

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A priority index-based computational medicine framework (PimRNA) for prioritising personalised mRNA cancer vaccines

Fang, H.; Tan, T.

2026-05-29 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354114 medRxiv
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Background: The development of personalised mRNA cancer vaccines holds considerable promise for oncology, yet a significant translational gap persists between neoantigen identification and the selection of therapeutically impactful targets. Current approaches predominantly prioritise human leukocyte antigen (HLA) binding affinity and immunogenicity, often overlooking the systems-level biological context of the target. This can inadvertently favour immunogenic but biologically peripheral peptides that exert limited influence on tumour signalling networks, thereby constraining vaccine efficacy. Furthermore, mRNA therapeutics must satisfy additional design requirements, including favourable codon usage and favourable secondary-structure stability, which directly affect in vivo translation and half-life. A unified computational framework that integrates neoantigen discovery with network biology is therefore critically needed. Results: Here, we present PimRNA, a Priority index (Pi)-centric computational medicine framework that bridges this gap by unifying neoantigen identification, mRNA sequence optimisation, and gene interaction network analysis. First, high-confidence tumour-specific HLA class I and II neoantigenic peptides are identified from paired tumour-normal genomic and tumour transcriptomic data using NeoDisc. Second, the coding sequences of these peptides are optimised for stability and translational efficiency with LinearDesign, yielding a core set of neoantigen-encoding mRNAs. Third, a random walk with restart algorithm is applied to a knowledgebase of gene interactions to identify peripheral genes exhibiting significant network connectivity to core genes, generating a gene-predictor matrix in which each gene is assigned an affinity score reflecting its network proximity to immunogenic neoantigens. These scores are consolidated into a single, unified priority rating (0-5) for each gene, followed by subnetwork analysis that reveals therapeutically relevant gene modules. Application of PimRNA to breast cancer and melanoma datasets demonstrates that it successfully selects high-confidence immunogenic neoantigen candidates embedded within biologically meaningful tumour-specific networks. Conclusion: PimRNA provides a systems biology foundation for mRNA vaccine design, moving beyond isolated immunogenicity to prioritise targets that are both highly presented and central to tumour-relevant biological networks. This framework offers a generalisable strategy for the rational discovery and prioritisation of mRNA therapeutics, significantly advancing the field of computational medicine towards personalised cancer vaccines.

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Treatment of malignant melanoma in certified cancer centres and its relationship to survival

Schoffer, O.; Piontek, D.; Meier, F.; Hunter, A.; Schneider, C.; Sackmann, A.; Manz, K.; Reinwald, F.; Thies, S.; Franke, B.; Klinkhammer-Schalke, M.; Zeissig, S. R.; Schmitt, J.

2026-03-17 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.03.16.26347792 medRxiv
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BackgroundHospital certification programs in Germany aim to improve the quality of cancer care. Previous research indicates that treatment in certified cancer centres leads to better overall and disease-free survival compared to non-certified hospitals for various cancers. Skin cancer, however, has not been investigated in this regard. ObjectivesTo test the hypothesis that treatment of melanoma in a certified cancer centre is related to survival benefits. MethodsData from clinical cancer registries in Germany were analysed. The analytical sample included n = 47,924 patients diagnosed with malignant melanoma between 2000 and 2022. Mixed-effects Cox regression models, adjusted for demographic and clinical confounders, were used to assess overall and disease-free survival. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. ResultsThe proportion of patients treated in certified cancer centres increased over time to > 60 % from 2016 onward. Treatment in certified centres was associated with significant better overall survival (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.82-0.88, p < 0.001). Results were statistically significant for stages I to III. For stage IV, the overall survival difference was not statistically significant, but subgroup analyses revealed a significant effect for cases diagnosed since 2011 (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.61-0.91, p < 0.010). With regard to disease-free survival, multivariable analyses revealed better survival in certified centres (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.85-0.92, p < 0.001). Similar results were observed across all subgroups stratified by stage of disease, except for stage IV. ConclusionsTreatment in certified cancer centres was associated with significant survival benefits for malignant melanoma patients, suggesting that the adherence to evidence-based quality standards improves patient outcomes. The fact that one in three patients has not been treated in certified cancer centres in recent years underscores the importance of expanding access to high-quality care. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=133 SRC="FIGDIR/small/26347792v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (27K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7caac5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@af7a1forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7aa859org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@c27dc4_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Plain Language SummaryO_ST_ABSHow specialized cancer centres improve survival for melanoma patientsC_ST_ABSThis study examined whether treatment in certified cancer centres in Germany improves survival outcomes for patients with malignant melanoma, a type of skin cancer. Using data from nearly 50,000 patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2022, we compared survival rates between those treated in certified cancer centres and non-certified hospitals. Certified centres adhere to strict quality standards designed to enhance cancer care. The proportion of patients treated in certified centres increased significantly over time, from 22% in 2000 to over 60% after 2016. Patients treated in certified centres had better overall survival, with a 16% lower risk of death compared to those treated in non-certified hospitals. This survival benefit was consistent across early stages of melanoma (stages I-III) and cases with unknown stages. For patients with advanced stage IV melanoma, a positive effect of treatment in certified centres was only visible for diagnoses made since 2011. Disease-free survival, which measures the time patients remain cancer-free, was also better in certified centres, showing an 12% lower risk of recurrence or progression. The findings emphasize the critical role of certified cancer centres in improving outcomes for melanoma patients. Expanding access to these centres and ensuring adherence to high-quality treatment protocols could further enhance survival rates and reduce disease recurrence, particularly for patients diagnosed at earlier stages. Key pointsO_ST_ABSWhy was the study undertaken?C_ST_ABSExisting evidence suggests that treatment in certified centres leads to better survival compared to non-certified hospitals. Using data from clinical cancer registries in Germany, this study aims to evaluate whether these benefits extend to malignant melanoma. What does this study add?Treatment in certified cancer centres is associated with significant survival benefits for malignant melanoma patients, with effects particularly pronounced for patients diagnosed at earlier stages. What are the implications of this study for disease understanding and/or clinical care?The findings underscore the importance of expanding access to certified care and ensuring adherence to high-quality treatment protocols in order to ensure equitable care for all patients.